Hints of Upturn Ease Gloom For Banks
With both industrial production and housing starts up in May, banks are now
experiencing what one industry executive calls "a cautious optimism" with
regard to commercial lending. Although attractive mortgage and credit card
rates have kept consumer spending up, banking institutions with assets of at
least $300 million have seen commercial and industrial lending plummet since
the start of the latest recession in March 2001 as a result of a decline in
capital equipment and software spending; fewer mergers and acquisitions; the
preference among businesses for non-bank financing; and lending geared
toward companies willing to buy multiple financial services.
Now, however, banks are beginning to report some growth in new commercial
and industrial loans; and, according to one industry insider, the sector
could see a significant improvement in the second half of the year if
interest rates rise--as this would prompt large companies to abandon the
public debt markets and return to banks for funding. Because of the newfound
optimism, investors believe the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest
rates by a quarter-point instead of a half-point at its upcoming meeting.
Source: New York Times (06/18/03);
Altman, Daniel
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